The Demographics

of Japan, II

 
 
 

Vocabulary

scary	line (3)	Halloween
binder	predict	outnumber
quaint	postcard	find/found/found
empty	hillside	give/gave/given
list	bureau	give away
get (2)	potential	abandoned
settle	for free	rec center
deploy	long ago	population
census	darn (2)	lose/lost/lost
status	move (2)	store-front
local	grade (3)	desperate
dozen	race (2)	couple (2)
resort	resident	the race is on
cupid	fix up (2)	play cupid
gift	face (2)	extinction
senior	peak (2)	run out (2)
dire	forecast	demographic
go off	issue (3)	time bomb (2)
decline	preview	immigration
yell	decrease	take away (2)
scream	shortage	lead/led/led
recent	countless	drive/drove/driven
toll (2)	decision	take a toll on
fund	oppose	shrink/shrank/shrunk
rapid	wealthy	demography
shift	average	think/thought/thought
planet	reinvent	love affair (2)
cater	massive	departed (2)
re-toll	generous	mausoleum
pay off	deal (2)	loved-ones
lack	funeral	all sorts of
tour	take on	long-lasting
host	perform	make up (3)
monk	relocate	replacement
		town hall

 
 
 
 
 
 

Video

 

 
 
 
 

Transcript

It’s not exactly Halloween-style scary, but the US Census Bureau predicted this past week that Americans over sixty-five (65) will outnumber children, just fifteen years from now.

So what might an aging America look like?

Maybe something like what Ben Tracy finds in this postcard from Japan.

 

 

In the hillsides outside of Tokyo is the quaint village of Okutama, Japan.

Ben Tracy, Reporter: “So this house is empty?”
Masuriho Yamada: “Yes.”

And Masuhiro Yamada has probably the most important job in town.

Ben Tracy, Reporter: “All of these homes, the town is giving away?”
Masuriho Yamada: “Yes.”

His binder lists all of the empty and abandoned homes in Okutama, which he then gets to give away.

Ben Tracy, Reporter: “If somebody wants to live here, they could potentially get this house for free?”

He says “yes”. If you live in the house for fifteen years, we will give it to you for free.

Ben Tracy, Reporter: “That’s a really good deal.”

“Yes,” he says. “We want people to settle here.”

Okutama isn’t generous — it’s desperate.

In recent decades, it’s lost half of its population. The main street is lined with closed store-fronts. Most of the people who still live here have what you might call “senior status”.

And at the local school, the entire third grade has just six kids; not so long ago, there were dozens.

So at town hall, the race is on to find new residents. Yamada has even resorted to playing Cupid.

Ben Tracy, Reporter: “So you fixed up this couple, and you gave them this house as a gift, to get them to move here?”
“Yes,” he says. “We also have them the house.”
Ben Tracy, Reporter: “Anything to get people to move here.”
Masuriho Yamada: “We do it all.”

Nearly one-thousand other Japanese towns and villages face extinction, because the country is simply running out of people.

Japan’s population peaked several years ago, at one-hundred-twenty-eight (128) million.

And if the dire forecast comes true, Japan will have as few as fifty-nine million people by 2100. That means for every two Japanese residents today, there would be less than one by the end of the century.

Ben Tracy, Reporter: “So if this is really a demographic time-bomb, has the bomb gone off?”
John Mock: “The bomb is going off.”

John Mock is an expert on population issues at Temple University in Japan. He says what’s happening in Japan is a preview of what many Western countries, including the United States, will soon face.

John Mock, Demographer, Temple University: “Take away immigration from the United States, you’re going to have a decreasing or close to it. There’s lots of yelling and screaming about immigration.

But there’s very little discussion in the United States about birth rates, and what population do you want the United States to be.”

In Japan, which has historically opposed immigration, immigrants now make up two percent of the population. That’s led to an extreme labor shortage.

And that’s why you see countless Japanese men driving taxis in Tokyo, rather than young, new arrivals.

The real issue here in Japan is simple mathematics: too few women are having too few babies. And the reasons may sound familiar: they’re getting married later in life; and housing and educating kids is really darn expensive.
Those decisions will take a toll on Japan’s economy. The International Monetary Fund predicts Japan’s GDP will shrink by twenty-five percent (25%) over the next forty years because of it’s rapidly aging and declining population.

Reporter: “What does this country look like fifty (50) years from now?”
John Mock, Demographer, Temple University: “I don’t Japan will be as wealthy as it is now, because along with the population shift, the average age of Japan is going up.”

So Japan is being forced to be creative, reinventing nearly everything for what is now the oldest populations on the planet. Shopping center are being re-tooled as massive rec centers for seniors, with stores catering to their needs.

This high-tech mausoleum makes it easier for the elderly to visit their departed loved-ones.

And then there are the robots: Japan’s long-lasting love affair with them is finally paying off. They will be used to make up for a lack of human workers, and take on all sorts of jobs, everything from tour guides to talk show hosts.

The bots are also deployed to work in nursing homes, even perform funerals due to a shortage of monks.

There is no robot replacement for Masuhiro Yamada in Okutama, which is okay, because his house give-away is getting results: about five-hundred (500) people have relocated here, including this couple who received a two-story home, and also opened a coffee shop.

Reporter: “Will you stay for fifteen years so that you get the house for free?” She says, “yes, of course.”

But what also seems certain is that during those fifteen years, is that their small town will get even smaller.

 

 

Questions

1. Will the demographics of the United States and Japan resemble a pyramid, diamond, cylinder or upside-down pyramid?

2. Housing is very expensive in the village of Okutama, Japan. True or false?

3. Does the village have a radical solution to its problem?

4. Has the town changed over the years? What was it like before? What is it like now?

5. Is the town of Okutama unique in Japan? What is its demographic trend?

6. Will Japan’s economy grow, shrink or remain the same? Are they very open to immigration. What is their solution to labor shortages?

7. There has been a migration reversal. Is this correct or incorrect?

 

A. Is your village, town or city increasing in size, decreasing, or remaining the same?

B. What can you say about rural versus urban population sizes?

C. The population of our country is increasing. Yes or no? Is there any immigration?

D. What might happen in the future?

E. Are there any solutions to migration and demographic issues?